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The Demographic Cliff Nobody Priced Into 2030 Media Plans

Household formation rates are diverging sharply from the audience models most planners still use.

Miriam Kade · 2026-07-21

The gap\n\nPlanning models assume a household formation curve that stopped matching reality in 2022.\n\n## Consequences\n\n- Reach curves overstate 25-34 availability by 9-14%\n- Cost-per-reach-point inflation is structural, not cyclical\n\n## What to do now\n\nRebase panels annually, not triennially, and split cohorts by tenure rather than age alone.